Iran (Islamic Republic)
IR · Middle East · Major regional power · Nuclear threshold state
Iran is a theocratic republic governed by the principle of Velayat-e Faqih (guardianship of the Islamic jurist), with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei holding ultimate authority above the elected president. Iran’s foreign policy is defined by three parallel objectives: resisting American and Israeli power in the Middle East, maintaining the 1979 Islamic Revolution’s ideological project, and developing strategic deterrence through a network of regional proxy forces (the “Axis of Resistance”) and a nuclear programme that has placed it at weapons threshold capability.
Iran has no formal military alliances but exercises significant regional influence through proxy forces including Hezbollah (Lebanon), Hamas (Gaza), the Houthis (Yemen), and Shia militias in Iraq and Syria. This network gives Iran a form of distributed deterrence: attacking Iran directly risks retaliation across multiple theatres simultaneously.
Iran has no formal mutual defence alliances. It joined the SCO as a full member in 2023 and BRICS in 2024, deepening ties with Russia and China. Iran supplied Russia with Shahed-136 kamikaze drones that have been extensively used against Ukrainian infrastructure. Iran’s primary strategic relationships are with its proxy network and with Russia and China, which provide diplomatic cover (UNSC veto) and economic lifelines (Chinese oil purchases) against Western pressure.
Iran’s official defence spending fell to approximately $7.4 billion in real terms in 2024, squeezed by hyperinflation exceeding 42% and severe economic stagnation under sanctions (SIPRI, 2026). However, as SIPRI explicitly warns, these figures significantly understate reality: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — designated a Foreign Terrorist Organisation by the US since 2019 — is funded extensively through off-budget oil revenues that do not appear in official defence accounts. The IRGC controls Iran’s ballistic missile programme, drone production, and all proxy relationships.
Iran possesses the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East, with missiles capable of reaching Israel, US bases in the Gulf, and southeastern Europe. Iran has approximately 580,000 active military personnel across the regular armed forces and IRGC.
Nuclear status (2026): Following Israeli and US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities (Operation Midnight Hammer) and subsequent Iranian retaliation, the IAEA has completely lost continuity of knowledge — inspectors have been blocked from Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. Iran holds approximately 440.9 kg of uranium enriched to 60% purity (weapons grade is 90%). Intelligence agencies now assess Iran as a de facto threshold breakout state capable of producing sufficient weapons-grade material for multiple nuclear devices within a very short timeframe if it decides to proceed.
Nuclear programme and IAEA access: The JCPOA (2015) limited Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief. The US withdrew in 2018, Iran progressively violated the deal’s limits, and following military strikes on its facilities in 2025–2026, Iran has suspended IAEA inspector access entirely. The international community has lost visibility into Iran’s nuclear activities at a moment of maximum concern.
Israel — direct and proxy war: Iran and Israel are in an active state of direct and proxy conflict. Iran funds and arms Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. April 2024 saw Iran’s first direct missile and drone attack on Israeli territory (300+ projectiles). Since then, multiple rounds of direct strikes and counter-strikes between Iran and Israel have occurred, marking a fundamental escalation from the previous era of indirect “shadow war.”
US sanctions: Iran has been under comprehensive US sanctions since 1979. Despite the sanctions’ severe economic impact, they have not produced a change in Iranian strategic behaviour, making Iran a key test case for the effectiveness — and limits — of economic coercion as a foreign policy tool.
Saudi Arabia and Gulf states: Iran and Saudi Arabia represent the central sectarian (Shia/Sunni) and geopolitical rivalry in the Middle East. China brokered a historic Iran-Saudi normalisation agreement in March 2023, though underlying tensions remain significant.
Iran is the central case study in debates about nuclear proliferation, deterrence, and the limits of economic coercion. Structural realists (Waltz) have controversially argued that a nuclear-armed Iran would stabilise the Middle East through mutual deterrence with Israel — most scholars reject this, noting that theological governance introduces uncertainty about rational deterrence calculations. Iran’s Axis of Resistance strategy is studied as “extended deterrence from below” — using proxies to impose costs on adversaries without triggering direct retaliation. The JCPOA collapse and subsequent nuclear escalation is now the definitive post-Cold War case study for the failure of multilateral arms control when a key signatory withdraws.
- 1IAEA, Iran Nuclear Safeguards Reports — iaea.org
- 2FDD, IAEA Access and the Iran Nuclear Deal — fdd.org
- 3SIPRI, Global Military Spending 2026 — sipri.org
- 4IMF, World Economic Outlook Database 2024 — imf.org
- 5US DoD, Iran Military Power Report — media.defense.gov