China (People’s Republic)
CN · East Asia · UN Security Council permanent member (P5) · Nuclear weapons state
China is the world’s second-largest economy and second-largest defence spender in absolute terms. It holds a permanent UN Security Council seat with veto power and is the only state that most analysts consider a genuine peer competitor to the United States across economic, military, and technological dimensions simultaneously. China’s foreign policy is guided by the concept of the “Century of Humiliation” (1839–1949) — a period of foreign domination that shapes Beijing’s acute sensitivity to sovereignty, territorial integrity, and what it calls “interference in internal affairs.”
Under President Xi Jinping (in power since 2013, term limits abolished in 2018), China has moved from Deng Xiaoping’s “hide your strength, bide your time” strategy toward a more assertive posture — expanding in the South China Sea, increasing military pressure on Taiwan, and building alternative international institutions (BRICS, SCO, BRI) to reshape the US-led rules-based order.
China has no formal mutual defence treaties comparable to NATO Article 5. Its closest security relationship is with Russia — the two signed a “no limits” partnership in February 2022, days before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, though China has stopped short of providing confirmed lethal military assistance to Russia. China is the dominant power in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and has built significant economic influence through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China is a founding member of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), widely seen as a rival to the World Bank and IMF-led order.
China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is the world’s largest military by personnel with approximately 2 million active troops. The official 2024 defence budget reached approximately $232 billion — though SIPRI and independent analysts estimate true military spending, including off-budget items, at $470–700 billion when accounting for R&D, paramilitary forces, and state-directed defence industry subsidies (SIPRI, 2026).
China is estimated to possess approximately 650+ operational nuclear warheads as of 2026 (FAS/US DoD), having crossed this threshold ahead of schedule. The US Department of Defense assessed in 2023 that China is on track to field 1,000+ warheads before 2030 — making China the fastest-expanding nuclear arsenal of any state. China has the world’s largest navy by vessel count and the second-largest air force.
Taiwan: China claims Taiwan as a province under the “One China” principle and has not renounced the use of force for reunification. Military pressure — including frequent PLA Air Force incursions into Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification Zone and large-scale naval exercises — has intensified significantly under Xi. The US maintains “strategic ambiguity” under the Taiwan Relations Act (1979), selling arms to Taiwan without formally committing to military defence.
South China Sea: China claims approximately 90% of the South China Sea through the “nine-dash line,” overlapping with claims from Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan. A 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling found China’s claims had no legal basis under UNCLOS — Beijing rejected the ruling entirely and has continued island-building and militarisation.
India (LAC): China and India share a 3,488km disputed border (Line of Actual Control). A deadly clash in the Galwan Valley in June 2020 killed 20 Indian and an unknown number of Chinese soldiers — the first fatalities on that border since 1975 — and relations remain severely strained.
Japan (Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands): China claims the Senkaku Islands administered by Japan as the Diaoyu Islands, creating periodic coastguard and naval confrontations in the East China Sea.
China is the central case study in the debate between power transition theory and liberal institutionalism. Power transition theorists (Organski, Allison’s “Thucydides Trap”) argue that a rising China challenging a dominant US makes conflict likely — Allison identified 12 of 16 historical cases of power transition ending in war. Liberal institutionalists counter that China’s deep integration in global trade makes conflict catastrophically costly for both sides. Xi’s foreign policy fits neither cleanly: China is simultaneously deeply embedded in the international economic order and actively working to reshape the rules of that order in its favour.
- 1SIPRI, Military Expenditure Database 2024 — sipri.org
- 2Federation of American Scientists, Chinese Nuclear Forces 2024 — fas.org
- 3US Department of Defense, Military and Security Developments Involving the PRC 2023 — media.defense.gov
- 4IMF, World Economic Outlook Database 2024 — imf.org
- 5PCA, South China Sea Arbitration Award 2016 — pca-cpa.org